Germany in ten years.

Three steps, one policy package, four pictures.

The model does not forecast. It shows what follows from a set of assumptions when they are carried forward consistently for ten years.

1. 1

   Baseline

   The starting point comes from official projections: population, the economy, public finances, pensions, energy. It carries a date and is updated continuously.

2. 2

   Decisions

   Policy enters through levers, not yes-or-no choices: defence spending, pension level, investment ratio, carbon price path and more, each with a realistic range, cost, delay and source.

3. 3

   Four worlds

   The same policy package is run through four environment scenarios. The result is four pictures of Germany in ten years and a comparison of which decisions hold up in all four worlds.

The scenarios come from the environment, not from the decisions.

From the environment, the two dimensions are chosen that are at once the most uncertain and the most consequential. For the first edition: the world and the European Union.

The real insight lies in the comparison

robust

The decision works in the same direction in all four worlds.

bet

The decision works in one world only; in the others it fades or reverses.

conditional

The effect flips depending on the environment. This is where the assumptions deserve a closer look.

The model never says which world will come.

In the tradition of The Limits to Growth, with three corrections.

In 1972 the Club of Rome ran the world forward a hundred years with a system model and drew lines. The lines were read as prophecy, the assumptions behind them stayed with the specialists, and what remained was a single warning. The method was right. The presentation was not.

nowplus10 draws three consequences. Uncertainty bands instead of lines: every impact parameter is a range, not a point value. Open assumptions instead of authority: every effect carries a source and can be challenged. Four scenarios instead of one warning: the model shows what follows and leaves the judgement to you.

Four things the model deliberately does not do.

Not a forecast.

The model does not say what will happen. It shows what follows from assumptions.

No overall score.

Instead of a single number, a target profile in five equal-weighted dimensions: prosperity, security, sustainability, fairness, freedom. How to weigh them is nobody's decision but yours.

No collection of political preferences.

No profiles, no analysis of answers, no tracking. The free version runs entirely in the browser.

No AI estimating numbers.

The numbers come from a deterministic, reproducible model. The AI narrates the scenarios, explains causal chains and examines objections.

Neutrality is a design principle, not a tone of voice.

Nobody believes in anonymous neutrality. A visible method is another matter.

• Official reference path. The starting point comes from official projections. The only thing left to attack is the impact logic, which is open.
• Impact parameters as ranges. Every assumption about the strength and delay of an effect is a range with a source, not a point value.
• Contested parameters, your choice. Disputed parameters show both camps with sources and estimate ranges. You choose the position yourself.
• Versioned and citable. The impact logic carries version numbers. A permalink created today returns the same result a year from now.
• Public challenge process. Objections are checked against sources and answered with a change log for each version.

Three rhythms

1. continuous Baseline New official data moves the starting point, daily to weekly, with a source log.
2. event-driven Environment Decisions, summits and conflicts shift the ranges of future paths, not today's state.
3. new version only Impact logic Structure and parameter ranges change only with a version number, a change log and renewed validation. The news has no access here.

Use it freely, compare, go deeper in the Studio. planned

• Free No login, entirely in the browser. A guided run with baseline, decisions, scenario cross and robustness assessment. The model is fully disclosed.
• Registered All levers, all four environment scenarios, save scenarios and compare two side by side.
• Studio For institutions: your own assumptions, ensemble runs, reports, workshop mode and commissioned studies.

All three tiers are planned. There is nothing to book yet.

Prof. Dr. Ulf Pillkahn

Prof. Dr. Ulf Pillkahn teaches and researches in foresight, strategy and innovation. nowplus10 is published under his name; an advisory board spanning the political spectrum is planned as an anchor of neutrality.

The same method is applied at picturesoftomorrow.com to the data and questions of clients.